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2014 stainless steel price trend forecast in May

Date:2014/5/29 18:31:22 Popularity:3375
 

Influenced by the Indonesian mine ban, domestic nickel ore imports fell, nickel iron supply, combined with Aaron nickel continued to rally, layers of breakthrough on the mark. At home during the Spring Festival atmosphere, completely into the normal operation of the economy, in April, the domestic price of stainless steel with nickel prices crazy rally, ushered in the first round of this year rose period, to now still no turning. 304 to rally the fiercest, the highest increase of 2400 yuan. 201 times, the highest increase of 900 yuan, less than half of the former; Other than for the small amplitude adjustment. Basic price and high quality level and 316 l for itself, or is also relatively large, more than 2000 yuan and no wonder.

【 】 the stainless steel market review in April

LME nickel

 

Under the influence of the mine ban in Indonesia, Aaron rapid rise in February in nickel prices period, and in the middle of march to the first top to down. By China's market demand better, in the short term after the fall, quickly back to the fast rise period, the rally was fierce, and after the break 18000 mark, is at a record high.

As of April 28, Aaron outside nickel price closed at $18110 a tonne, compared with the previous trading day down $370, compared with the previous month rose $2199 / ton, or 13.82%, the highest closed at $18480. To gain more than 29% this year, 14 months ago; Inventory of 282800 tons, the end of march to reduce 3430 tons, or 1.2%, in is in stock.

Aaron outside copper tight trading range is given priority to, hovering between 6500-6800, as of 28, 6745 dollars/tons, from the previous trading day down $25 a, the end of march rose $100, inventory is still in the fall.

Indonesian mine ban still has the role to the nickel prices, but more institutions think Aaron nickel gains more than expected, and reached a peak, 18000, in the short term will not conducive to the late, rally to continue for a long time. Sudden drop, but the domestic nickel ore import in spite of rapidly rising prices for nickel miners to speed up the import, import nickel short-term bounce back, but the overall supply worries still let nickel iron manufacturers, rised complex.

 

In insane Aaron nickel prices, domestic electrolytic nickel market is also rapid ascent, jinchuan company also frequently raised its offer, are up to break 100000 mark, 120000 online. At 28, domestic electrolytic nickel price 126937-127637 yuan/ton, the end of march rose 24800 yuan/ton, up more than 24%. Jinchuan company electrolytic nickel price 128000-129200 yuan/ton.

Domestic nickel/iron ore

 

Is also influenced by the Indonesian mine ban, nickel iron and nickel ore prices continue to rise, supplies, despite big an increase in the price of purchasing stainless steel mills, manufacturers and traders are rised mentality, the rally has not stopped.

Steel mills trend

"Pricing"

Baosteel stainless ex-factory price in May, 2014, 304 from April cold roll rose 1200 yuan/ton, cold-rolled 17500 yuan/ton, hot-rolled rose 1300 yuan/ton to 16500 yuan/ton; 430 cold roll flat, treasure the new cold rolling at 9300 yuan/ton, hot rolled coils of baosteel 8200 yuan/tons, in addition to the 430 hot rolling for burrs, other are trimming.

"Nickel ore"

Baosteel: may the high nickel cast iron bidding price, 10-15% nickel pig iron to raise 170 yuan to 1200 yuan/nickel, tax to the factory, the spot cash.

Taigang: high nickel cast iron the bidding price in May, compared with the previous round rose 145 yuan to 1180 yuan/nickel, tax to the factory, the spot cash.

Castle peak group: high nickel iron bidding price increase 100 yuan to 1300 yuan/nickel, tax to the factory, the spot cash.

Stainless steel price dynamics

 

In April, the domestic stainless steel under the nickel prices to boost prices, to enter this year's rise in the first stage, to the present no obvious signs of steering, of which 304 led to the highest point in the past year, with gain is also considerable.

According to the China iron and steel spot network monitoring data shows that: as of 28, 2.0 mm production taigang 304 cold roll of average price at 17325 yuan/ton, the end of march rose 2150 yuan/ton, up 14.17%. The highest drop in north China for up to 2400 yuan/tons, to 17400 yuan/ton, followed by wuxi rose 2200 yuan to 17300 yuan/ton, foshan rose 1800 yuan to 17000 yuan/ton.

Hot rolling movements are no longer made way, chase after go up for many times, and cold rolled price gap is narrowing, almost close to. From 4.0 to 5.0 mm 304 hot coil taigang average price 17125 yuan/ton, the end of march rose 2200 yuan/ton, or 14.74%. Up to 17300 yuan/ton of tianjin, shenyang, the lowest for zibo 16900 yuan/ton, 17100 yuan/ton. 17100 wuxi patrika, rose 2400 yuan/ton, foshan patrika 17100 yuan/ton, up 2200 yuan.

 

In the middle of 201 stainless steel prices relatively moderate, began to more frequent operation, and occasionally in late 430 in action. As of 28, together to produce 1.0 mm cold roll an average of 201 to 10043 yuan/ton, after nearly four months rushed back to the 10000 mark, gains during the month of 729 yuan. The foshan patrika 10000 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, wuxi region also rose 900 to 10100 yuan/ton. Jisco production mm430 cold roll an average of 2.0 to 8500 yuan/ton, the end of march rose 163 yuan, including foshan patrika 8300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, wuxi region rose 200 to 8500 yuan/ton, the Shanghai market rose 200 yuan to 8600 yuan/ton.

"Inventory"

 

News summary both at home and abroad

[international] slightly ease situation in Ukraine, market investor nervousness a little relief. Euro zone comprehensive PMI initial value rose to 54.0 in April, in May 2011 to highest, including the initial manufacturing PMI in April 53.0. 54.3 higher than expected.

[domestic] since the end of march, the stimulation signal appear constantly, the market demand is gradually released.

State council executive meeting, including give play to the role of developmental financial support for turn shantytowns into new housing areas, deepen the reform of the railway investment and financing system, policy measures to speed up the construction of railway, research for expanding the scope of the small micro enterprise income tax preferential policy to implement three economic promoting measures. Then proposed to integrate the affordable housing PengGai three funds, zhou xiaochuan research after 4 release "meet the demand of corporate finance, financial reform and innovation of the bottom line is to keep the financial stability" and so on four big policy signals.

Only 7.4% in the first quarter GDP came after, however, Mr Li said: "about 7.5% is normal, do not take strong stimulus measures". And in the next state council executive meeting to determine 11 priorities this year, will increase domestic demand of the economy. The ministry of commerce also in the import and export decline in the first quarter and said it would push steady export policies. CDB has also revealed that are compiled urbanization financing plan, guide the social capital to participate in, actively promote the urbanization process.

HSBC China manufacturing PMI initial value of 48.3 in April from the previous final value, 0.3% rally in manufacturing has said in turn for the better. In the latest seminar hosted by li keqiang, research relying on the golden waterway construction of the Yangtze river economic belt, provide important support for China's sustained economic development. And stressed that the construction of the Yangtze river economic belt and the deepening of reform and opening up, break the barrier of the administrative area, construction of unified open and competitive and orderly modern market system of the whole basin.

Prediction: in conclusion, the market demand is in gradual recovery; No rebound of inventory; Combined with nickel material price rise wanting more, Aaron nickel short-term difficult to persistent, more high and volatile; Steel mills also raised ex-factory price and raw material purchasing prices sharply, to support the market. Although with stainless steel prices continue to rise, adjust the space is limited, downstream procurement carefully, also dare not up goods in great quantities, to the inventory speed is not fast, but the businessman about future expectations remain optimistic, resilient in the short term market is very strong. Expected, strong domestic stainless steel plate price high in May, at a low price have a catch up

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